Monday, March 18, 2024

Things Are Listening

I just asked Siri (my iPhone) "when was Memorial Day in 1996?"

She gave one of these "here are some options, check it out" useless responses so I quickly typed into Google on my PC's browser "Memorial Day" and before I got any farther the first autofill it gave me was "1996."

Is that a coincidence? Of all the years before now it went to 1996? I don't think "Memorial Day 1996" could have been in my browser's history. But I've been writing about some things that went on around then so maybe it was. If not, it seems weird and uncanny and I don't like it, even if I know it was all done without any human intervention and no actual human behind the curtain cares what I was searching for.



Friday, March 08, 2024

POP cp When I Was Born

Just calculated that, when I was born, US population was only 54% of what it is today. 

World population was 38% of today's.

Not really sure why, but these numbers make me kind of nostalgic and kind of sad.

Thursday, March 07, 2024

The Greenhouse Effect Strikes Again

From an article about ice fishers in New England having to pull their bobhouses off the ice earlier than in the past:

“I had to help pull out a bob-house out that fell in three years ago,” said Cutter, adding that a friend had built that house with a glass roof, which ended up turning it into a heating greenhouse that melted a hole in the ice beneath it.

Thursday, February 08, 2024

BREAKING: Michael Mann Wins Defamation Suit, Awarded Over $1 million

$1 in compensatory damages from Steyn, $1 M in punitive damages.

$1 in compensatory damages from Simberg, $1 K in punitive damages.

NY Times

Michael Mann, a Leading Climate Scientist, Wins His Defamation Suit: The researcher had sued two writers and their publishers for libel and slander over comments about his work. The jury found “spite” and “deliberate intent to harm.”

“The six-person jury announced its unanimous verdict after a four-week trial in District of Columbia Superior Court and one full day of deliberation. They found both Mr. Simberg and Mr. Steyn guilty of defaming Dr. Mann with multiple false statements and awarded the scientist $1 in compensatory damages from each writer.


“The jury also found the writers had made their statements with “maliciousness, spite, ill will, vengeance or deliberate intent to harm,” and levied punitive damages of $1,000 against Mr. Simberg and $1 million against Mr. Steyn in order to deter others from doing the same….


“In 2021, Judge Irving, along with another D.C. Superior Court judge, decided that the Competitive Enterprise Institute and National Review could not be held liable. The publishers did not meet the bar of “actual malice” imposed on public figures suing for defamation, the judges ruled, meaning employees of the two organizations did not publish Mr. Simberg and Mr. Steyn’s posts knowing them to be false, nor did they have “reckless disregard” for whether the posts were false.


“Dr. Mann’s attorneys have indicated that they will appeal this previous decision.”

Monday, September 04, 2023

UAH: Second-warmest Month in Their Records

UAH/Roy Spencer just published their temperature anomaly for the lower troposphere.


It's the warmest August since their records start in 1979 (by 0.30°C!) and the 2nd-hottest month since 1979 (just 0.01°C below the record of February 2016). 

This decade-to-date, 34 months into the new decade, is 0.27°C warmer than the last decade-to-date. (It's a short time interval, though, so not very meaningful.)

Every new decade UAH adjusts their anomalies to the latest 30 years (perhaps to keep the numbers smaller?). August's anomaly, with respect to 1980-2009, is 0.83°C, larger than I would have guessed. 

When is 1.00°C going to appear?

Very likely even higher anomalies to come in the next few months as the El Nino gets rolling....

Sunday, September 03, 2023

China's WAP Decline

China's working-age population has peaked. Not good news if you want continued national economic growth.

   

Via The World Bank, via Paul Krugman in the NY Times. He writes:
"At a fundamental level, China is suffering from the paradox of thrift, which says that an economy can suffer if consumers try to save too much. If businesses aren’t willing to borrow and then invest all the money consumers are trying to save, the result is an economic downturn. Such a downturn may well reduce the amount businesses are willing to invest, so an attempt to save more can actually reduce investment.

"And China has an incredibly high national savings rate. Why? I’m not sure there’s a consensus about the causes, but an I.M.F. study argued that the biggest drivers are a low birthrate — so people don’t feel they can rely on their children to support them in retirement — and an inadequate social safety net, so they don’t feel that they can rely on public support either."
This kind of thing is why macroeconomics is so interesting. And why you can't run government as a business, something some people don't seem able to understand.

Friday, September 01, 2023

Roy Spencer's Temperature

Roy Spencer usually publishes their temperature anomaly for the lower troposphere for the month just ended on the first of the month.

But it's not published today. (As of Sept 1, 4:54 pm Central Time.)

I've noticed from the past that he often doesn't publish it on the first of the month when the anomaly is high. 

But never when the anomaly is low.

Of course, maybe he's on vacation. It is Labor Day here on Monday, and maybe he's getting in a four-day leave. I hope that's the reason. Wouldn't want to think there's a bias going on. Wouldn't want to think there's a bit of a file drawer problem.

(Seriously though, there is a real issue, in me and everyone else, to stop analysis when we get the result we think we want, and to keep looking for problems when we don't. I guess the only solution to that is for others to look at the science too and see what they get. Science does that and usually gets it right, but usually it takes some time. The RSS group hasn't published their August LT anomaly yet, but then they usually don't on the first of the month, but usually a few days later, sometimes several days later. Seems like a better delivery system.)